The Rivlin Initiative of the DC Policy Center recently completed the first round of its quarterly business survey of 2025 and the fifth round in general. The purpose of the survey is to provide detailed information on the business community experiences of elected officials, the media and the wider community. Distributed in mid -January, the survey included the latest businesses’ experiences, six -month expectations for local, regional and national economies, and experiences with crime in district and the wider region.
Respondents mainly came from small businesses in the DC region
The 293 respondents of the first round study were mainly owners or drivers of businesses in the sector of professional, scientific and technical services, real estate and non -profit sector. 53 percent of respondents came from businesses that operated for more than 10 years, and 85 percent came from businesses with 20 employees or less.[1] Despite the reasonable size of the sample, the results reported below are subject to some restrictions that are common for many surveys. For this reason, the results should be seen as largely quality.[2]
Finding # 1: Most of the surveyed businesses reported minimal or without change regarding staff, space and income in three months before the survey.
In the three months that led to the study, most of the survey respondents reported minimal at no change in the amount of busy space, the number of employees or the amount of income generated by their related business. At the same time, a large number of businesses reported a decline in revenue and personnel levels than those that reported growth. For the context, these results closely reflect the fourth round results in 2024.
Finding # 2: Six -month economic expectations have been converged, with more respondents that anticipate weaker than the strongest conditions.
The six -month expectations of respondents in the survey of district economies, regional and national have been converged. For most of 2024, respondents were more optimistic about the national economy than the district economy. At the beginning of 2025, more respondents expect local, regional and national economies to weaken rather than strengthen in the next six months. At the same time, between a quarter and a third of the respondents expect minimal non -change of economic conditions – whether local, regional, or national.
The convergence of expectations may have arisen from the uncertainty raised about the scope of policy changes under Trump’s administration. The administration has made it clear that it favors protectionist trade policies, immigration restrictive measures, tax cuts, regulatory returns and considerable cuts for federal expenses. The administration also plans to reduce the number of rental buildings and owned by federal offices while asking federal employees to return to the office. While the overall economic effects of these policies remain unclear, there are basis for concern that economic conditions will weaken. Economists warn that the combined effects of deportations and increased tariffs can promote an inflation revival.
Finding # 3: Almost half of the surveyed businesses report that they are more concerned about public safety than last year.
Nearly half of the survey respondents recorded greater concerns for crime compared to their concern in January 2024, while 10 percent reported they were less concerned, and 40 percent noticed no change in their level of concern . Despite the concerns raised, nearly 60 percent of respondents stated that their related business remained uninvited by crime last year. But 17 percent suffered a single crime, 19 percent faced two to five incidents, and 5 percent encountered six or more crimes during the year. Property damage, divisive behavior and robbery or theft were the most common crimes affected by surveyed businesses.
Finding # 4: Between 2023 and 2024, crime was reduced to DC
Crime data show that they fall into various offenses between 2023 and 2024. The killing rate fell from about 40 per 100,000 inhabitants to 2023 to 24,000 in 2024.[3] Thefts, robberies and thefts also decreased, with theft rates falling from 159 to 121 per 100,000 inhabitants, declining robberies from 504 to 255 per 100,000 inhabitants, and thefts that reduce from 3055 to 2308 per 100,000 inhabitants.[4]
Public safety should remain a major advantage
Given that concerns about crime and public safety can affect business decisions and economic activity in the district, public security should remain a major advantage for the city. While many crime discussions focus on crime levels, focusing only on rates can lead to an incomplete view. Even when crime rates stabilize or fall, The total number of crimes In the DC it may remain high and contribute to concerns about public safety. Through the thoughtful, targeted public policies, the district can build its latest progress in reducing crime and providing sustainable improvements in both public safety and public sense.
Data attachment
- Crime data for DC were obtained from the real -time crime index website (RTCI). The website warns that “Crime counts for an agency are a photograph in time and may differ from what is published by that agency or eventually published by the FBI depending on reporting methodology for that agency. These changes are almost always small and should not affect that general tendency of the agency … The purpose of RTCI is to accurately portray crime trends rather than accurate crime charges, which requires to accept that data of crime are often incorrect and incomplete. “
[1] Using data from three -month employment and salary registration (QCEW) for the second quarter of 2024, we weighed the answers based on the distribution of the business industry in the DC region. The sample size is 293 and the weighted sample size is 289.1 (findings # 1 and 2). The sample size for the sub -community of public safety questions is 249 and the weighted sample size is 243.6 (Finding # 3). The results documented in this report are based on weighted data.
[2] For example, it cannot be assumed with confidence that the feelings of the survey participants are representatives of those who did not complete the survey. Note that the survey respondents were mainly recruited via email by a list of businesses registered in Colombia district.
[3] For a more fully discussion of the DC killing trends, see the 2024 capital’s report by Stan Veger, Domonic Bearfield, Leah Brooks and Ferdinando Monte.
[4] Definitions of murder, robbery, robbery, theft and other crimes can be found here.